If the IAEA admits that Iran could make five A-bombs with the enriched U-235 it already has, you can bet your bottom dollar that estimate is a bare minimum. The history of intelligence estimates of the nuclear bomb-making capacity of rogue states is one of underestimation: the Soviet Union, Red China, Pakistan, and North Korea all managed to surprise Western intelligence with their atomic bomb tests, and then with the speed with which they were able to improve and build up their nuclear arsenals. If not for the covert "black" ops against the Iranian nuclear weapons program, probably by Israeli (and maybe also by American) intelligence they would likely already have working nuclear weapons.
If the IAEA admits that Iran could make five A-bombs with the enriched U-235 it already has, you can bet your bottom dollar that estimate is a bare minimum. The history of intelligence estimates of the nuclear bomb-making capacity of rogue states is one of underestimation: the Soviet Union, Red China, Pakistan, and North Korea all managed to surprise Western intelligence with their atomic bomb tests, and then with the speed with which they were able to improve and build up their nuclear arsenals. If not for the covert "black" ops against the Iranian nuclear weapons program, probably by Israeli (and maybe also by American) intelligence they would likely already have working nuclear weapons.
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