For sanctions to succeed one of three things would have to occur before Iran actually develops nuclear weapon capability:
Since these are the things that would have to happen before sanctions could be described as a success, and since they aren’t likely to happen, sanctions will probably be a failure.
- Tehran’s technocratic theocrats change their minds and policies; decide they don’t really need nuclear weapons and abandon their quest. (Chances: In your dreams.)
- The people of Iran correctly identify their rulers’ ambitions as the source of their troubles, revolt and throw the rascals out. (Chances: Possible yes; probable no.)
- Sanctions and boycotts and restrictions by the world community bring about Iran’s total economic as well as administrative collapse. (Chances: Long run, likely; before they have nukes, unlikely.)
Wednesday, October 17, 2012
George Jonas's Three Strikes Yer Out Re Anti-Iran Sanctions
Once again, the brilliant NatPo pundit is able to state in plain terms what others cannot or will not explain. In this case, it's why a fanatical Shiite regime in the grip of a messianic narrative is unlikely to be swayed by economic sanctions, no matter how crippling:
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