Thursday, February 17, 2011

Jimminy's Optimistic Prediction

Jimmy Carter, the man who misjudged the Ayatollah, bungled the Iran hostage crisis and who, many years later, oversaw the "free and fair" election of Hamas (a Muslim Brotherhood offshoot) has this to say about Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood:
"I think the Muslim Brotherhood is not anything to be afraid of in the upcoming (Egyptian) political situation and the evolution I see as most likely," Carter said. "They will be subsumed in the overwhelming demonstration of desire for freedom and true democracy."
Riiiight. Not exactly the Oracle of Delphi is our Jimminy.

At one point does wishful thinking segue into certifiable insanity? Because I'm pretty sure the old gasbag crossed that line some time ago.

Update: Ceeb eminence grise Joe Schlesinger doesn't think that Egypt will become a theocracy a la Iran because Sunnis (Egyptians) and Shias (Iranians) and waaay different:
Religion can play a more dominant role in Shia societies. Sunnis consider their relationship with God direct and imams are generally seen only as prayer leaders.

The Shia, on the other hand, have a hierarchical structure and their imams are considered community leaders.

That distinction can leave Sunni societies with a greater separation between mosque and state and makes it less likely that Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood would ever play as important a role there as the mullahs do in Iran.
Hey, anything's possible. But how's this for a nightmare scenario--the Brotherhood comes to power and ends up forming an alliance with Iran? Despite the vast Sunni-Shia divide, it could happen because, as political and military expert Elliot Chodoff explained at a conference in Toronto yesterday ("When Middle East Politics Invade Campus"), the Ayatollah and the Brothers are closer than you think: so taken with Brother Qutb's Naziesque musings was the late Ayatollah Khomeini that he took it upon himself to translate them into Farsi, and  put them to work in his theocracy.

No comments: