The end to Iran's isolation has the potential to reshape a Middle East power structure that has long depended on Shia Muslim Tehran shunted to the sidelines.
The possibility of its re-emergence onto the world stage has already made uneasy allies of Israel and Saudi Arabia, Iran's Sunni Muslim rival.
They are now joined by nervousness not only over how effective this nuclear containment might be, but over what any international détente with Iran would have on its influence.
Over time, a deal could well change the political calculus in the region, tilting it in Iran's direction. (It could also affect the dynamics of the international oil market.)
Without sanctions, and hooked up again to the world's economic mainline, Iran could once again grow its economy and perhaps become a regional economic heavyweight.
Unlike so many countries in the region, it is internally stable, with a young and highly educated middle class who are clearly anxious to reach out to the world.
At the most hopeful, a more confident, more economically buoyant Iran might begin to whittle away at some of the world's mistrust and even encourage more freedoms at home.On the other hand, not so much:
On the other hand, a more economically powerful Iran could also play a more strident role in the Middle East.Despite the short shrift Ayed gives to "the other hand," it's the hand that is far more likely to come to pass.