An Animated Reality Check in Egypt

Thomas L. Friedman, still in the grip of a Tahrir Square induced euphoria and sounding like Colonel Pickering high-fiving Henry Higgins, foresees marvelous changes for the Arab world:

 This could get interesting — for all the region’s autocrats. Egypt’s youthful and resourceful democrats are just getting started. Up to now, the democracy movement in the Arab world was largely confined to the U.S.-led liberation of Iraq, which, because it was U.S.-led, has not been able to serve as a model for emulation. If, and it remains a big if, Egypt can now make the transition to democracy, led by its own youth and under the protection of its own armed forces, watch out. The message coming out of Cairo will be: We tried Nasserism; we tried Islamism; and now we’re trying democracy. But not democracy imported from Britain or delivered by America — democracy conceived, gestated and born in Tahrir Square. That will resonate among Arabs — and in Iran.

Let me put this in terms you'll understand, Tom. You're thinking that "democracy"-minded Egyptians are like the Jetsons. Unfortunately, should Egypt's armed forces allow "the transition" to democracy via free and fair elections, the Flintstones--the Muslim Brotherhood--will shortly thereafter be in charge. And that's the homegrown, DIY example other Arab nations can and will emulate.

As for Iran, if you'll recall, the people did rise up there with the aim of deposing the despot, and Barack H. Obama did squat to support their desire for democracy and encourage the brute (who, unlike Mubarak, is not an America ally) to leave.

Update: Barry Rubin predicts:

Egypt is going to move from a "pro-U.S." to a "neutralist" stance in regional issues. That means it will not be of any help in combating Iranian influence (except possibly in the Gaza Strip) or working against Iran getting nuclear weapons, or on promoting the peace process or on any other regional issue. An area to watch especially will be what happens with Egypt-Syria relations.

Internally, there will be more Islamization. The Christian minority has a lot to worry about. The Mubarak government didn't protect them. What can one expect from a government based on needing to remain popular with the overwhelmingly Muslim electorate?

The current revolution could set off a long-term process that might one day produce a Muslim Brotherhood takeover but that would take many years. The Brotherhood is cautious. During the next phase it will try to Islamize the society, get government money and patronage to build its base, and displace establishment clerics with its own people...