George Jonas's Three Strikes Yer Out Re Anti-Iran Sanctions

Once again, the brilliant NatPo pundit is able to state in plain terms what others cannot or will not explain. In this case, it's why a  fanatical Shiite regime in the grip of a messianic narrative is unlikely to be swayed by economic sanctions, no matter how crippling:

For sanctions to succeed one of three things would have to occur before Iran actually develops nuclear weapon capability:

1. Tehran’s technocratic theocrats change their minds and policies; decide they don’t really need nuclear weapons and abandon their quest. (Chances: In your dreams.)
2. The people of Iran correctly identify their rulers’ ambitions as the source of their troubles, revolt and throw the rascals out. (Chances: Possible yes; probable no.)
3. Sanctions and boycotts and restrictions by the world community bring about Iran’s total economic as well as administrative collapse. (Chances: Long run, likely; before they have nukes, unlikely.)

Since these are the things that would have to happen before sanctions could be described as a success, and since they aren’t likely to happen, sanctions will probably be a failure.